Freshly Picked, October 7, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Simplify Financial Consolidation and Take Control of Your Numbers
• Cut Costs and Boost Efficiency Without Adding Staff
• Scale Your Restaurant Chain and Protect Every Dollar

Produce

Iceberg lettuce rebounded 12% after a long downtrend, signaling possible early volatility in the lettuce market. Roma tomatoes fell another 13%, nearing $10/carton—a price level that typically triggers stronger buyer activity. Other key commodities, including avocados, held relatively stable across producing regions.

Outlook: Produce prices are expected to trend sideways with mild upward movement likely heading into the winter season. Multi-unit operators should monitor supply transitions closely to manage consistency across locations.

Grains

Grain markets saw heightened activity last week following U.S.-China trade speculation, giving soybeans a short-term boost. Despite the rally, most analysts believe the impact will be muted given the timing within the export season. Corn and wheat held steady amid balanced supply and demand.

Outlook: Grains are projected to trade sideways in the near term. Operators may benefit from slightly lower feed and ingredient costs through late fall.

Dairy

Dairy prices were firmer across key segments. Butter rose $0.11 to $1.75/lb as production pivoted to retail and holiday orders, while cheese blocks and barrels climbed modestly. Domestic demand for cheese remains balanced with strong export activity supporting overall market stability.

Outlook: Expect a firm-to-higher dairy market through Q4 as holiday manufacturing demand increases and international orders persist.

Beef

Beef prices continued to ease as the market corrected from summer highs. The choice cutout fell to $363.22/cwt, and most end cuts followed suit. Ribeyes and loins were mixed, while ground beef 81% held firm near $3.50/lb. Seasonal trends point toward stabilization, but retail and holiday demand will soon begin to influence higher-value cuts.

Outlook: Expect modest declines in October before holiday buying lifts tenderloin and rib pricing. Now is an opportune window to negotiate for premium cuts ahead of the seasonal spike.

Pork

The pork complex was mixed with overall weakness tied to soft domestic demand. The pork cutout dropped 3% to $107.35/cwt, with bellies leading the decline. Loins, tenderloins, and baby back ribs saw modest strength thanks to steady export volume. Butts and trimmings eased slightly as inventories grew.

Outlook: Expect a mostly steady-to-soft market short term. International demand continues to provide moderate price support for export-friendly cuts.

Poultry

Chicken markets continued their sharp decline last week as supply expanded and retail promotions softened. Boneless/skinless breasts dropped $0.16 to $1.26/lb and tenderloins fell $0.21 to $1.75/lb, now down more than 25% month-over-month. Wings slid $0.14 to $1.30/lb and remain 44% lower year-over-year. Turkey prices were mixed, with boneless breasts up slightly while whole birds eased nearly 7%.

Outlook: Abundant supply will keep chicken prices under pressure through mid-October. Operators should take advantage of the current market to secure favorable contract pricing before seasonal demand returns.

Seafood

Snow crab prices rose 5.6% month-over-month as limited quotas and reduced imports drove tighter supply conditions. Prices had been easing through summer but firmed unexpectedly as the season closed. Broader seafood markets remain uneven with variable global production.

Outlook: Expect snow crab pricing to remain firm in the short term before softening slightly toward year-end as inventories rebalance.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.