Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Poultry slaughter remained managed last week. Young bird production fell 2% from the prior week and was 2% below the same week a year ago. Output for the week ending September 26 rose nearly 4% week over week but fell 1.4% year over year, and 2026 year-to-date weekly production is just 1.4% above last year. Monthly figures have been stronger than the USDA weekly estimates: August chicken production came in 3.3% above last year, on a comparable increase in slaughter. The six-week chick placement average is essentially even with last year, so production looks set to stay tempered for at least the rest of October. Many chicken markets still declined last week, including breasts, wings, and leg quarters, while table egg markets edged slightly higher.
Outlook: The industry broadly expects chicken output growth to stay tempered this fall, and the USDA currently forecasts Q4 production up 2.3% from 2025. Breasts and tenders typically decline in October, though. Tenders have been lower in October than in September in 10 of the last 11 years.
Beef
Summary: Beef output rebounded 13.2% from the previous week, which had been hit by operational disruptions, but remained 2.8% below the same week last year. Late-week cattle imports from Mexico rose to an estimated 7,000-plus head, the highest in well over a year. Beef markets were mixed. They gained early as slaughter attempted to recover, then eased as the week went on. The USDA Choice and Select boxed beef cutouts each rose less than 1% on the week. Ribs and Select briskets posted the biggest gains, while flanks stayed soft and have dropped more than 7% over the last four weeks. Beef 90 trim was lower, and all other trim markets were higher. Cattle imports from Mexico are moving in the right direction, but domestic cattle supplies still need to improve. Pasture conditions, which are essential to herd development, remain historically poor. Only 19% of pasture was rated good or excellent last week, the lowest reading for that week in over three decades.
Outlook: Fall beef production is projected to run near 3% below a year ago. The National Weather Service indicates drought conditions in cattle country should improve over the coming months, which could drive much stronger herd expansion momentum as the new year gets underway.
Pork
Pork output increased 0.5% from the prior week but was 2.3% below 2025, and year-to-date weekly production is now 0.1% under last year. Markets were mixed, with many sitting at historically low levels. The pork cutout fell 1.4%, along with declines in ribs, loins, and hams. The major trim markets were lower as well, with 42s at their lowest point since May. History points to further declines, since the 42 trim market has averaged lower in October than in September in eight of the last nine years. Pork supplies have been limited this year despite heavier hog weights, and that looks likely to continue this fall. Late last month, the USDA put the March through May 2026 pig crop 0.4% below the prior year, the smallest for that period since 2022. Those pigs reach slaughter this fall, so the USDA projects Q4 pork output at well less than 1% above 2025.
Outlook: Limited supply and already-low prices could temper seasonal downside in some pork markets in the coming weeks, including bellies. The USDA pork belly primal has averaged lower in December than in September in each of the last seven years.
Produce
Outside of lettuce, the big five produce sectors saw little movement last week. 24-count iceberg gained another 30% week over week and has nearly quadrupled in price since the first week of August. One more week of gains at that pace would bring iceberg to around $50, the level where these late-year rallies usually end, which could mean a slowdown by mid-October. This year’s rally started a few weeks earlier than usual, however, so substantial relief may not arrive until well into November. Tomatoes have upside between now and December but eased back last week, which was somewhat unexpected. That downturn shouldn’t last more than another week or two. 48-count Hass avocados were basically level week over week.
Outlook:Lettuce could slow by mid-October, though substantial relief may not come until well into November. Tomatoes still have room to rise before December, and avocados will hopefully hold level through the end of the year.
Dairy
Friday’s CME spot dairy session was light, with just 14 loads traded. For the week, CME cheese blocks and butter moved lower, while dry whey and nonfat dry milk remained firm. The nonfat dry milk weekly average rose to a 19-week high and is within a dime of a multi-decade high. Constrained production has limited nonfat dry milk supplies. Domestic buyers are limiting purchases, but export demand remains solid. Butter demand is solid domestically, and export sales are outpacing it. Cheese markets traded at their lowest levels since 2020, pressured by strong milk and cheese production and historically large stocks. U.S. cold storage cheese inventory at the end of August was 2.3% larger than a year earlier, the largest in three years and the fourth largest on record.
Outlook: U.S. cheese is trading at its steepest discount to the E.U. since February, which should encourage exports. Downside price risk in cheese from here could be nominal.
Grains
All the grains closed lower last week. Corn and soybean meal led the losses, while soybeans and soybean oil held closer to even. Nearly all of corn’s losses came Wednesday afternoon, after the September 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks Report. The trade had expected corn stocks to come in near the 1.922 billion bushel 2025/26 carryout printed in the September WASDE. The report showed almost 2.1 billion bushels on and off farms as of September 1, well above even the highest trade expectations. The 2026/27 carry-in will be adjusted to match. With export demand off to a slower start this year, that 173 million bushel increase may carry all the way through to the 2026/27 carryout.
Outlook: December corn has dropped back to its closest technical support at $5. If the selloff doesn’t bring in new export demand, corn could struggle to hold that level this month.
Seafood
Frozen Alaskan pollock filet slipped just 2% month over month in the July data and continues to move closely with cod. Like cod, pollock snapped a four-month winning streak during which its average price rose nearly 33%. The decline came even though import volumes are still running well below normal, which hints at some demand destruction in the U.S. That needs to continue for prices to trend lower, since the pollock market usually doesn’t reach its yearly high until Q4. Last year was an outlier, but from 2018 through 2024, pollock peaked between October and December six times.
Outlook: Pollock will likely pick up seasonal support toward the end of 2026, so a more noteworthy downward correction probably won’t come until Q1 2027.
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