Freshly Picked, April 29, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Make Sense of Your P&L and Use It to Drive Strategic Decisions
• Smart Scaling Starts with Smarter Cost Control
• Build a Restaurant Growth Strategy That’s Ready for 2025 and Beyond

Produce

Both iceberg lettuce and roma tomato prices rebounded, climbing 12.5% and 11.9% w/w, respectively. However, the tomato uptick appears temporary, while iceberg lettuce might see prices hit $25–$30/carton before easing. No major supply shocks are expected, suggesting produce markets should stabilize heading into the summer growing season.

Outlook: Lettuce may stay elevated for a few more weeks, but barring weather disruptions, produce markets should normalize by late spring.

Grains

Grains traded mixed as heavy rains in the U.S. Southern Plains and improved Black Sea weather pressured Kansas City wheat prices lower. Without stronger export demand or a rebound in global weather issues, wheat markets are likely to remain under pressure. Technical support helped prevent further drops, but overall bearish momentum persists.

Outlook: Weather improvements and weaker global demand could keep grains, especially wheat, trending lower into the early summer months.

Dairy

Dairy prices slipped, with butter down slightly to $2.33/lb and cheese blocks and barrels both dropping by around 8–9%. Foodservice demand remains weak, while retail demand is steady to higher. Strong milk production is boosting cheese output, which could add additional downward pressure on prices in the coming weeks.

Outlook: Dairy prices are likely to remain under pressure as milk availability increases and foodservice demand stays soft.

Beef

Cattle futures rose 3% to $213.50/cwt, but the overall beef cutout values were flat. Ribeye and tenderloin prices slipped slightly, while striploins and shortloins saw moderate gains. Ground beef surged 9% to $3.00/lb, indicating shifting consumer demand toward more affordable beef cuts. Expect further price firming in loins and ground beef as grilling season approaches.

Outlook: Beef fundamentals remain strong, but with rib prices softening, look for increased strength in loins, sirloins, and ground beef leading into prime grilling months.

Pork

Pork prices were mixed as the loin primal rose 5% and pork butts climbed 4%, but ribs and bellies fell. Export sales dropped sharply, increasing concerns over tariff impacts. With almost 30% of U.S. pork sold internationally, the market faces growing volatility that could result in lower domestic prices if export demand continues to soften.

Outlook: Trade tensions are creating uncertainty, but softer exports could eventually drive pork prices lower for U.S. buyers this spring.

Poultry

Chicken prices surged again last week, with boneless breasts up to $2.72/lb and boneless thighs jumping to $2.10/lb. Tenderloins also climbed sharply, now up 3% y/y. While retail ads stayed flat overall, thigh meat promotions were notably higher. Limited harvest and strong retail and foodservice demand suggest continued upward pressure on chicken prices heading into summer.

Outlook: Chicken pricing strength is expected to continue into summer, driven by tighter supplies and stronger menu demand across restaurants and retail.

Seafood

Frozen Alaskan pollock prices dipped 5.6% m/m in February, realigning closer to normal seasonal levels after a strong finish to 2024. Although typically prices continue falling into April or May, the early low suggests moderate weakness before a summer rebound. Look for a typical seasonal peak between October and November.

Outlook: Expect pollock prices to drift lower through May before seasonal demand pushes prices higher later in the year.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.