Freshly Picked, August 19, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

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• Short on Staff? Cut Costs and Boost Efficiency Without Adding Headcount
• Think Food and Labor Are Your Biggest Expenses? Don’t Overlook Indirect Costs

Produce

Produce markets stabilized after recent swings. Iceberg lettuce and roma tomatoes held steady, though romas are expected to trend higher this fall. Potatoes remain quiet, signaling the early end of the pre-harvest rally.

Outlook: Expect seasonal volatility in September and October, particularly on leafy greens and tomatoes. Operators should work with supply partners now to plan alternate specifications and regional sourcing strategies to protect margins.

Grains

USDA’s WASDE report surprised the market with a sharp yield increase for corn and added acreage, creating a very heavy supply outlook. Soybeans moved in the opposite direction, with a bullish shift.

Outlook: Abundant corn supplies will limit price recovery, providing an opportunity to manage feed and ingredient costs. Soybean volatility may spill over into cooking oils — operators should assess coverage to mitigate risk in frying and ingredient programs.

Dairy

Cheese markets were mixed, with blocks down and barrels slightly higher. Butter saw the biggest decline on softer foodservice demand as cream supplies loosened. Milk production remains seasonally light but adequate.

Outlook: Retail demand for cheese is adding support, but butter markets are likely to remain pressured until the holiday baking season. Multi-unit operators should review contract utilization to ensure they’re capitalizing on favorable butter and cheese pricing windows.

Beef

Cattle futures retreated sharply, but beef cutouts climbed as buyers stock up ahead of Labor Day. Middle meats like tenderloins and ribeyes are showing seasonal strength, while end cuts such as chucks and rounds are trending higher as well. Ground beef and trim remain mixed.

Outlook: Holiday demand is keeping high-value cuts strong. Now is the time for multi-unit groups to plan end-of-year promotions and lock in forward contracts for tenderloins and ribs to protect against holiday price escalation.

Pork

Pork trade was mixed, with strong international sales of pork butts providing support. Tenderloins and ribs edged higher, while hams and loins moved lower. Trim markets were steady to softer.

Outlook: Near-term values will remain volatile. With tariffs and global trade policies creating uncertainty, multi-unit operators should closely monitor primal shifts and consider hedging strategies to stabilize food costs across locations.

Poultry

Chicken harvests remain steady year-over-year, but pricing signals are moderating. Boneless/skinless breasts gained slightly, while tenderloins slipped. Wings continue to climb month-over-month but remain far below last year’s highs. Turkey and egg markets were mixed, with eggs trending lower.

Outlook: Expect consistent supply, but keep an eye on tariffs that may impact export sales and push prices down further. Multi-unit operators should leverage volume purchasing and menu flexibility to capture value if depreciation accelerates.

Seafood

Fresh Atlantic salmon prices fell to a four-year low, down nearly 20% in the past three months. Imports remain strong, adding pressure to the market.

Outlook: While losses may slow, recovery is unlikely until salmon reaches its seasonal floor in late fall. Multi-unit operators should evaluate long-term contracts to lock in low pricing and protect menu profitability.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.