Freshly Picked, August 26, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Struggling with Rising Food Costs? Here’s Why Operators Partner with Us.
• Too Many Vendors, Not Enough Time? One Solution Fixes That.
• Think You Know What Your Restaurant’s Worth? Think Again.

Produce

Tomatoes corrected higher while iceberg surged 10.5% week-over-week. With the September–November rally approaching, lettuce markets show no sign of cooling and could revisit last year’s $40–$50/carton highs.

Outlook: Tomato pricing should stabilize in the short term, but lettuce is poised for sustained inflation. Multi-unit concepts should consider contracted supply or menu flexibility to manage risk.

Grains

Corn and soybeans rallied on weaker crop tour yields in Iowa and Illinois compared to USDA estimates, while wheat also eked out gains. Minnesota’s bumper crop may offset some national losses.

Outlook: Supply-side uncertainty will keep grain markets choppy. Franchises relying heavily on corn- and soy-based feed or inputs should plan for continued price swings.

Dairy

Butter softened again, down to $2.24/lb, while cheese markets were steady to weaker. Tight milk availability from summer heat is limiting production, though retail and export cheese demand is holding firm.

Outlook: Butter will remain under pressure due to weaker foodservice demand, while cheese should stay competitive on global markets. Large-scale operators can expect continued volatility in butter costs into fall.

Beef

The beef complex saw broad gains with choice cutout up 3% and tenderloins rising to $18.37/lb. Ground beef also climbed, with 81% lean up $0.29 to $4.09/lb. End cuts like chuck rolls and rounds firmed, keeping input costs elevated.

Outlook: Expect sustained strength into Labor Day and even early holiday demand for ribs and tenderloins. Multi-unit operators should lock in forward pricing where possible to control rising costs on premium cuts.

Pork

The pork cutout eased 1% to $112.60/cwt, but butts and ribs were supported by international demand. Loins were mixed, while bellies and hams weakened sharply, with hams down 14%.

Outlook: Lean hog cash prices are trending lower, and primals could face more downside pressure next month. Franchises may benefit from value cuts like butts and ribs but should watch bellies and hams for volatility.

Poultry

Harvest volumes were flat week-over-week at 171.8M head, staying slightly above last year. Whole birds eased while breast meat strengthened, with boneless/skinless breasts up 9% year-over-year. Wings dipped a penny but remain 29% lower than last year, while egg prices dropped 9% week-over-week.

Outlook: With seasonal weakness leveling off, the bigger risk now comes from new tariffs that could pressure exports and depress chicken markets through year-end—something multi-unit menus should plan around.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna prices have dropped nearly 37% over the past three months despite easing imports. Volumes are expected to decline through November, which could support a rebound.

Outlook: Tuna may not regain the $4/lb mark until early 2026. Operators with seafood-heavy menus should weigh forward-buying strategies to protect margins during the downturn.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.