Freshly Picked, February 17, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• Restaurant Rebates: The Margin Strategy Growing Brands Can’t Ignore
• Building a Restaurant Technology Stack That Actually Scales
• Expanding Your Supplier Network Without Expanding Complexity

Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing continues to climb toward historically rare levels near $50/carton. Tomato markets showed their first week-over-week decline since mid-December, though freeze damage in the Eastern U.S. continues to support elevated pricing on large romas.

Outlook: Tomatoes may remain elevated for another two to three weeks before easing into late March. Iceberg pricing at extreme levels is historically difficult to sustain, and demand pullback could slow the upward momentum if supply does not improve.

Grains

Soybeans continued to rally, lifting much of the grain complex, supported by reports of a potential U.S.–China trade truce extension. However, weak export sales and strong Brazilian supply are creating uncertainty around the sustainability of the move. May soybean futures remain above $11.

Outlook: While trade optimism is providing short-term support, global supply pressure may limit additional upside. Farmer selling could trigger renewed weakness, though a sharp decline below $11 appears unlikely in the immediate term.

Dairy

Dairy markets were mixed, with CME blocks falling to $1.39/lb and barrels steady at $1.44/lb. Butter rose to $1.74/lb but remains well below last year’s and five-year average levels year-to-date. Milk supplies are adequate, and production remains near capacity.

Outlook: Stable milk availability and steady retail demand are keeping cheese markets balanced. Strong domestic and export butter demand should continue to support butter pricing in the near term.

Beef

Cattle futures strengthened 3% to $242.50/cwt, while boxed beef was mixed, with choice at $364.84/cwt and select slightly higher. The loin complex posted gains, including striploins at $9.78/lb and shortloins at $8.20/lb, while ribeyes edged higher to $10.70/lb. Ground beef 81% eased to $3.50/lb, and 90% lean trim rose to $4.25/lb. End cuts remained mixed across chucks and rounds.

Outlook: Lower harvest volumes continue to underpin pricing despite February typically being a softer demand period. With sizable brisket sales already committed and supplies remaining tight, beef markets are expected to stay supported in the near term.

Pork

Hog futures trended lower, though the pork cutout edged up to $95.65/cwt. Loins gained 2% with boneless loins at $1.40/lb, while bone-in butts increased slightly and boneless butts softened. Bellies posted modest gains, spareribs declined, and ham primals were lower. Export activity slowed week-over-week.

Outlook: Lower harvest levels are lending mild support to the cutout. Retail demand remains soft, but rebuilding freezer inventories and improving export activity could stabilize pricing, with the market expected to trend steady to slightly firmer.

Poultry

USDA young chicken harvest totaled 167.7 million head, slightly higher week-over-week but down 1% year-over-year. The National Composite WOG rose to $1.18/lb. Boneless/skinless breasts climbed to $1.45/lb, now up 22% month-over-month, while tenderloins reached $1.52/lb. Wings moved higher to $1.21/lb but remain significantly below last year’s levels. Thigh meat continues to show strength at $1.46/lb, up 16% m/m and 9% y/y. Turkey breasts remain sharply elevated year-over-year, and shell egg pricing rose nearly 10% week-over-week.

Outlook: Seasonal demand and reduced harvest volumes tied to prior storm disruptions are supporting the complex. White meat is firming quickly, while dark meat remains the most stable performer year-over-year. Expect continued near-term strength, particularly in breast and thigh markets.

Seafood

Frozen tilapia fillet pricing declined 9.5% month-over-month in November, reaching its lowest level since tracking began in 2012, driven by seasonal patterns and increased import volumes.

Outlook: A seasonal rebound is possible in March and April before prices soften again heading into late spring, following typical demand cycles.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.