Freshly Picked, October 14, 2025

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Produce

The lettuce market roared back to life last week, with 24-count iceberg prices soaring 77% week-over-week. After months of relative calm, persistent disease pressure and the seasonal shift from summer to fall production have sparked the typical October–November rally. Prices had already begun firming in early October, but the latest surge suggests limited supply relief in the near term. Historically, lettuce markets experience volatility this time of year, and early indications show a repeat pattern for 2025.

Outlook: Prices could climb toward $40 before stabilizing later next month.

Grains

Grain markets were quiet last week as the absence of new government data kept trading volumes light. The soybean complex was the only bright spot early in the week, lifted by trade optimism tied to President Trump’s upcoming meeting with President Xi. Prices gained momentum midweek before easing back as traders grew skeptical of meaningful export developments. The market remains in a seasonal window for peak soybean shipments, limiting near-term upside potential.

Outlook: Soybean prices could dip below $10 without new trade or export momentum.

Dairy

Dairy prices moved broadly lower across the complex. Butter fell $0.15 to $1.60/lb as churns shifted production toward retail packaging for the holidays. CME cheese blocks eased $0.02 to $1.76/lb, while barrels gained $0.02 to $1.74/lb. Year-to-date, block prices are nearly flat, but remain below the five-year average. Milk output continues to improve from summer levels, allowing for stronger production schedules. Cheese makers are beginning to fill holiday orders, which has started to increase output, while butter demand remains mixed between retail and foodservice channels.

Outlook: Modest price stability expected as production strengthens and holiday orders accelerate.

Beef

Cattle markets showed renewed strength last week, suggesting a near-term floor. The CME October live cattle contract rose 2% to $235/cwt, while choice boxed beef increased 1% to $365.22/cwt. Premium cuts led the gains: boneless heavy ribeyes climbed $0.59 to $14.91/lb, while export ribs edged down $0.44 to $12.43/lb. End cuts were mixed, with chuck rolls off $0.06 to $4.46/lb and inside rounds gaining $0.23 to $4.13/lb. Ground beef prices softened, with 81% lean down $0.31 to $3.20/lb. Trim markets were mixed as 50% trim rose $0.11 to $1.47/lb and 90% lean trim fell $0.06 to $4.20/lb.

Outlook: Market stabilization appears underway, and demand for premium holiday cuts is expected to strengthen through year-end.

Pork

Pork prices slid 5% last week, marking a broad retreat across most primals. CME hog futures and cash lean hogs declined, while the pork cutout dropped to $102.64/cwt, driven by sharp weakness in bellies and butts. Bellies fell 13% to $133.77/cwt, with derind bellies down $0.20 to $1.61/lb—now $0.41 lower over the past two weeks. Pork butts also moved sharply lower, with bone-in prices off $0.16 to $1.25/lb. Tenderloins held flat at $1.96/lb, and loins fell slightly to $1.33/lb. The ham primal was the only segment showing strength, up 2% on the week.

Outlook: Oversupply and soft domestic demand will keep prices under pressure, though exports may provide mild support.

Poultry

The poultry market extended its downward trend last week as heavy harvest levels and waning retail promotions continued to pressure prices. The USDA reported 174.4 million head processed—slightly below the prior week but 4.4% higher than the same time last year. Boneless/skinless breasts fell another $0.07 to $1.19/lb, now down 35% month-over-month and 30% year-over-year. Tenderloins dropped $0.18 to $1.58/lb, mirroring similar declines. Chicken wings fell $0.12 to $1.17/lb, nearly half of where they were a year ago, and drumsticks eased $0.01 to $0.52/lb. Meanwhile, turkey prices remain the outlier—boneless breasts are up 263% year-to-date, and whole birds are up 54% year-over-year. Egg prices slipped 10% week-over-week, continuing a 29% annual decline.

Outlook: Chicken prices are expected to remain soft through October; turkey remains firm ahead of the holidays.

Seafood

Atlantic salmon prices extended their multi-month slide, falling another 5.1% month-over-month to $4.95/lb—the lowest average since December 2020. Prices have now declined 23.6% over the past four months, driven by strong import volumes that have persisted above average for five straight months. This supply pressure has outpaced demand recovery, though the pace of declines is beginning to moderate. The current price marks the second lowest July average in the past decade.

Outlook: Prices likely to stabilize soon before trending modestly higher into early 2026.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

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