Freshly Picked, September 2, 2025

Freshly Picked Insights

• Indirect Costs Can Quietly Chip Away Up to 15% of Multi-Unit Margins
• Operators Lose Thousands Each Year to Pricing Errors and Missed Rebates
• Depreciation Deductions Can Save Restaurants Up to $10,000 Annually

Produce

Iceberg lettuce pricing has nearly doubled in four weeks, driven by low Western yields. Tomatoes softened but remain poised for seasonal firming, while avocados stabilized near $30/carton as Mexico transitions crops.

Outlook: Expect elevated lettuce costs through late December, creating margin pressure on sandwiches, salads, and grab-and-go menus. Tomatoes should trend higher into November. Avocados appear steady, offering multi-unit buyers a reprieve from recent volatility.

Grains

Spring wheat saw midweek volatility but recovered by week’s end. Soybean oil gave back recent gains, again testing long-term support levels.

Outlook: Wheat fundamentals remain stable, though further Canadian crop reports could move markets. SBO may rebound near-term—multi-unit operators should watch for opportunities to secure frying oil coverage.

Dairy

Cheese blocks and barrels closed at $1.78/lb with steady domestic and export demand. Butter fell sharply to $2.08/lb but remains above the five-year average. NDM was unchanged at $1.26/lb.

Outlook: Cheese exports will continue to support values, while butter markets could tighten as manufacturers shift production toward retail packs ahead of the holidays. Corporate buyers should factor potential Q4 retail pull into planning.

Beef

Choice cutout advanced to $414.41/cwt, supported by tenderloins ($18.62/lb) and ribs. Striploins eased, while ground beef (81%) climbed to $4.16/lb. Trim was mixed, with 50% lean weaker and 90% lean slightly firmer.

Outlook: Holiday primals will retain counter-seasonal strength through Q4. Broader cutout values may ease post-Labor Day, but limited harvest schedules will provide some balance. Chains should plan menu features around tenderloins and ribs while closely watching lean trim for burger and grind programs.

Pork

The cutout moved lower to $111.49/cwt, though butts and ribs gained support from international sales. Loins slipped to $1.31/lb, tenderloins were steady at $1.97/lb, and bellies/trim weakened.

Outlook: Lean hog cash values are trending lower, and the cutout is expected to soften further into October. Operators relying on bacon and trim-heavy items should anticipate volatility and evaluate forward coverage.

Poultry

Harvest volumes dipped slightly from last week but remain above last year’s pace. Breasts climbed to $2.03/lb (+7% m/m), tenderloins retreated to $2.52/lb, and wings held at $1.73/lb. Thighs were mostly steady. Eggs remain soft, down nearly 30% year-over-year.

Outlook: Expect seasonal strength to return with fall retail promotions, but tariff challenges could disrupt export channels and soften wholesale values later this year. Multi-unit buyers should monitor contract exposure and consider timing future bookings around export uncertainty.

Seafood

Pollock extended its decline, down five consecutive months and 23% year-over-year. Import volumes hit a 31-year seasonal low, which should provide support for a rebound in the near term.

Outlook: Pollock prices are likely to recover briefly through fall before softening again into year-end. Chains using whitefish in value menus should plan pricing strategy with a short rally window in mind.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.