Commodity forecasting highlights from CommodityONE
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Poultry
Chicken production remains elevated year-over-year, but weekly slaughter growth is moderating and chick placements point to slower supply growth ahead. Markets were mostly soft, led by sharp declines in leg quarters, while table egg prices hit their highest level since March and producer margins remain under pressure.
Outlook: Limited downside risk remains for most chicken items as production growth cools, supporting relatively stable procurement costs through the fall.
Beef
Beef production continues to run well below year-ago levels, with boxed beef cutouts slipping to eight-month lows despite the tighter supply. The cattle herd picture is mixed, beef cow numbers are lower, but replacement heifers are building, signaling a potential longer-term inflection while near-term supplies stay constrained.
Outlook: Persistent tight beef supplies should provide price support, though recent cutout weakness warrants close monitoring for menu cost planning.
Pork
Pork output is essentially flat year-over-year, with heavier hog weights driving the modest production gain. Markets were mixed, highlighted by a strong belly rally that has historically peaked in August, while deeper inventory analysis suggests the current upside may be limited.
Outlook: Belly prices are likely near a seasonal peak, pointing to more stable or slightly softer pork costs heading into early fall.
Produce
Avocado prices extended their recent climb with another double-digit weekly gain, while iceberg lettuce continued to ease but at a slowing pace. No major supply disruptions are evident, and both items are following typical seasonal patterns.
Outlook: Avocados have modest near-term upside before a September downtrend, while lettuce should stabilize soon ahead of the usual fall rally, favoring forward purchases on lettuce in the next 4-6 weeks.
Dairy
Dairy markets finished mostly lower, with butter and cheese blocks posting notable weekly declines amid ample milk supplies and the largest U.S. milk cow herd in decades. Cream availability remains tight for butter production, and cheese export demand stays strong.
Outlook: Further downside in butter and cheese appears limited in the near term, supporting more predictable dairy costs for multi-unit operators.
Grains
Grains pulled back sharply last week after earlier July gains, with wheat showing relative resilience amid ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. The market has not yet fully priced in the risk of prolonged export-window interference.
Outlook: Wheat prices could move meaningfully higher if Black Sea disruptions continue into the peak August export period, warranting attention for grain-based menu items and contracts.
Seafood
May import data showed sharp volatility in frozen tilapia, with prices dropping 17.5% month-over-month after a strong April jump, consistent with its typical seasonal peak timing but steeper than expected.
Outlook: Tilapia may experience modest counter-seasonal firmness in the second half of 2026, offering potential opportunities for value-driven seafood promotions.
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