Freshly Picked, January 20, 2026

Freshly Picked Insights

• Rethink Purchasing: Give Your Multi‑Unit Brand One Source of Truth
• Turn Data Into Dollars: Actionable Insights That Drive Multi‑Unit Performance
• AI for QSRs: Cut Waste, Optimize Labor, Protect Margins

Produce

Hass avocados are firming early (48-count up w/w) and may be starting the typical Feb–May seasonal rally; cross-border volumes are OK but demand appears to be the driver. Lettuce and tomatoes have eased toward ~$10, with tomatoes likely stable through Q1 while lettuce may see intermittent surges.

Outlook: Expect avocado costs to trend higher into spring—plan portion control, consider avocado-limited specials, and negotiate short-term coverage now. Keep flexible lettuce inventory and buy short-to-mid window supply to avoid surge exposure; maintain tomato cover for Q1 stability and monitor weekly bids for late-Q1 lettuce volatility.

Grains

Corn led the week with a sharp drop after USDA raised national yield/harvested acreage estimates and reported larger Dec. 1 stocks — heavy supply is weighing on prices despite strong ethanol runs and flash exports. Fundamental supply remains ample, limiting near-term rallies.

Outlook: Expect continued downside or range-bound corn pressure until sustained demand picks up or acreage contracts. Hold off on aggressive short-term hedges for corn-based inputs unless you need budget certainty; renegotiate inputs tied to corn (batter, feed-managed proteins) on flexible terms and monitor ethanol/export signals for directional change.

Dairy

Mixed picture—CME butter slight uptick ($1.31/lb) amid strong retail demand and active churn; cheese blocks/barrels eased (blocks down more materially). Milk output is strong and spot volumes plentiful post-holidays, keeping pressure on cheese.

Outlook: Butter demand supports prices, but cheese faces downward pressure from ample milk. Re-price or promote butter-forward items sparingly; increase forward contracts or fixed-price buys on recurring cheese SKUs if you need cost certainty, and use cheese-intensive promotions when spot prices soften.

Beef

Cattle futures nudged higher; cutouts firm (choice ~$360.77/cwt). Premium loin and rib items moved up (tenderloin and ribeye strength) while end cuts and trim also firmed; ground beef and 50–90% trim increased. Market is showing firmness across many primal cuts.

Outlook: With potential near-term production constraints (plant downtime) supporting cutout values, expect continued range-bound to slightly firmer prices for premium cuts. Manage exposure by increasing forward coverage on high-margin loins/ribeyes, evaluate temporary plate price adjustments or portion strategy for premium steak items, and consider promoting value steak/taco programs that use higher-yield end cuts or blended ground to protect margins.

Pork

Pork cutout modestly higher (~$93.60/cwt) with loin, ribs, belly, ham and trims generally firmer; pork butt softened despite strong export bookings (notable export sale of 185 loads boneless butts). Overall primal mix shows divergent strength (ribs/hams up, butts down).

Outlook: Cuts tied to renewed demand (ribs, hams) should stay supported; butts may stay soft in the near term. Shift promotions toward ribs and ham-centric menu items to capture demand, lock in competitive pricing on butts for value or pulled-pork applications, and coordinate export-focused sales teams or supply partners if they handle exports.

Poultry

Young chicken harvest rose to 145.3M head (+7% y/y). WOGs and most white-meat items are near recent ranges (WOGs $1.20/lb; boneless/skinless breasts $1.19, +3% m/m, -19% y/y; tenderloins $1.40). Wings remain deeply discounted vs. last year (~$0.99, -48% y/y), while turkey and shell-egg markets are volatile: boneless turkey breasts and whole B/I turkeys are well above last year, but shell-egg index has collapsed as flocks recover from HPAI.

Outlook: Expect steady to modestly firmer white-meat prices as demand keeps pace with gradual supply recovery; eggs should remain historically soft until rebuild is fully absorbed. Protect margins by layering buys for breasts/tenders, opportunistically promote wings while prices are low, and rebalance shell-egg par levels and scramble/egg-based menu promotions to take advantage of lower egg costs.

Seafood

Yellowfin has weakened since early-2025, with import volumes rising and prices reaching seasonal lows; modest January improvement may have occurred, but imports and seasonal patterns imply extended softness.

Outlook: Price risk is to the downside near-term; use the lull to secure volume buys for promotional needs. Increase forward buying for frequently used species if storage and cash allow, and substitute higher-cost seafood menu items with yellowfin or other lower-cost species where appropriate to protect seafood margins.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

Consolidated Concepts offers custom contract support, commodity tracking, and supply chain solutions to help operators thrive—no matter the market conditions. Reach out to see how we can help your business stay ahead of pricing swings and supply uncertainty.