Freshly Picked, May 13, 2025

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Produce

Avocado prices fell for a sixth straight week despite pre-Cinco de Mayo demand. A return to sub-$50 cartons isn’t expected until after June. Yellow onions saw their first price uptick in over a year, signaling a potential seasonal bottom. Roma tomatoes slowed their pace of increase, rising just 2.8% w/w as the market enters its typical quiet season.

Outlook: Produce prices should remain mostly stable, with slight seasonal lifts for onions and continued softness in avocados through early summer.

Grains

Quiet news drove technical trading. Soybean oil slumped after failing to break key resistance. An upcoming EPA renewable volume obligations (RVO) announcement could reignite upward momentum if biodiesel policies shift.

Outlook: Grain markets are in a holding pattern ahead of key U.S.–China talks and Monday’s WASDE report.

Dairy

Butter prices edged up to $2.32/lb, while CME block cheese climbed 4% to $1.84/lb and barrels gained 2% to $1.78/lb. Nonfat dry milk rose to $1.22/lb. Retail demand remains steady, but foodservice activity is mixed. Cheese production is strong as milk supply grows.

Outlook: Expect steady dairy prices with ongoing inventory builds, though stronger seasonal demand could firm up cheese and butter through summer.

Beef

Choice cutout values climbed 1% to $347.89/cwt, while select jumped 3% to $333.20/cwt. Ribeyes and striploins held mostly flat, but shortloins and top sirloins saw moderate gains. Tenderloins slipped 3% to $13.27/lb. Chucks and rounds were mixed, with chuck rolls up, shoulder clods rising 5%, but inside rounds slipping 2%. Ground beef 81% rose 3% to $3.31/lb. Trim markets softened, with 50% trim down 7% to $1.11/lb and 90% lean trim easing to $3.75/lb.

Outlook: Rising cash cattle prices and tighter harvests are squeezing packer margins, likely pushing beef prices higher in the coming weeks.

Pork

Loin primal dipped 2% w/w, though boneless loins inched up to $1.33/lb. Pork butts strengthened, with primal up 4% and boneless butts reaching $1.39/lb. Ribs were mixed; spareribs held flat at $1.49/lb, while belly primals dropped 6% to $146.49/cwt. Belly subprimals declined $0.09 to $1.79/lb. Trims were sharply lower, with 42% trim down $0.18 to $0.60/lb and 72% trim slipping to $1.00/lb.

Outlook: Weak export sales and trade risks could keep domestic pork prices soft, especially as nearly 30% of U.S. production depends on exports.

Poultry

Boneless breast prices eased to $2.75/lb, still up 56% year-over-year, while tenderloins rose $0.03 to $2.24/lb. Boneless thighs continued higher to $2.31/lb, matching strong recent gains. Whole bird pricing slipped $0.01 to $1.35/lb, and wings fell sharply again, down $0.08 to $1.25/lb, now 45% lower year-over-year. Turkey breast prices dropped 2%, while whole turkeys fell 16%. Egg prices held steady as retail and foodservice demand remained light.

Outlook: Chicken prices are finding a floor, with tight harvest volumes and steady demand supporting current levels heading into summer.

Seafood

Yellowfin tuna surprised with a 5.9% m/m price increase in March, defying typical seasonal trends. After peaking in January, prices were expected to decline, but March posted a new seasonal high. Prices are still projected to soften through May before rebounding in summer.

Outlook: Tuna prices likely ease in the near term, but high seasonal ceilings could return later this year.

Need Help Managing Market Volatility?

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